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When it comes to deciding on treatment options with breast cancer (or any other disease) it can get hugely confusing to understand the various statistics in favor of one treatment or another. Steve Kass , an old high-school buddy who now happens to be a professor of mathematics has some thoughtful observations about looking at survival rates and death rates when it comes to breast cancer:

The five-year death rate after mastectomy was 11.5% for women who had both breasts removed. It was 16.3% for those who only had the cancerous breast removed. Adding a contralateral prophylactic mastectomy to the original surgery therefore reduced the five-year death rate from 16.3% to 11.5%. Almost a third fewer mastectomy patients died within 5 years when they had chosen to remove the second (healthy) breast, compared to mastectomy patients who had not chosen to remove the second breast. The bilateral mastectomy decreased the 5-year death rate by 29.4%.

This strikes me as a significant benefit. Suppose I have breast cancer and need a mastectomy. I can choose a single mastectomy and have a one-in-6 chance of dying in five years, or I can choose a double mastectomy and have a one-in-9 chance of dying in five years. One-in-9 sounds quite a bit better to me. If 100,000 women with unilateral cancer need mastectomies, performing 100,000 double mastectomies instead of 100,000 unilateral mastectomies will reduce the number of deaths in the first five years from 16,300 to 11,500. About 4,800 fewer women will die within five years.

The reporting of this study takes a very different viewpoint. It compares the survival rate, not the death rate, and notes that the bilateral prophylactic mastectomy increases the survival rate from 83.7% to 88.5%, “a difference of less than 5%.” Five percent sounds like a small number, but 5,000 lives saved sounds like a large number.

Both statements (lowers by 30%; benefits only 5%) are the same. Only the intent to communicate is different.

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- Dana White said during the UFC 104 post-show press conference that he thought Mauricio “Shogun” Rua won the main event, not Lyoto Machida.

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White said he was displeased with the result and that there will be a rematch.

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The Machida/Shogun fight ended up engulfed in controversy as it proved difficult to score due to both fighters showing a lot of patience and picking their shots. White mentioned that he wants to see fighters be more aggressive and not wait around so much.

“One of the things I always tell these guys is ‘You can’t leave it in the hands of the judges,’” White said. “You just can’t do it. But at the end of every round, neither one of the guys went after it. Neither guy tried to steal the round. You saw it a lot in boxing – and these guys have got to learn it in MMA – is when that 30 seconds is left, go after it and try to steal that round. Neither one of them did it throughout the fight.”

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